Astronomers who keep an eye on our beloved stardom-status comet Elenin, notice that the brightness of the comet has declined very considerably and that the coma became more elongated over the past week.
Several astronomers believe the comet will break up before it reaches perhelium — the point where the distance from the Sun is the smallest.
On August 19 2011 the comet was hit by a massive solar flare and coronal mass ejection(CME) which may mean the end of the wedge of ice and dust. As a result of the solar activity (see video below) the comet decreased in brightness within a few days to match up with values from early August.
We’ve been following it in the STEREO spacecraft images and a number of amateurs have been following it in their telescopes,” said Australian amateur astronomer Ian Musgrave, author of the Astroblog website. “Shortly after the coronal mass ejection the comet flared up and you could see some beautiful details in the tail, with the tail was twisting about in the solar wind. But shortly after that Earth- bound amateurs reported a huge decrease in the intensity of the comet. We think it may presage a falling apart of the comet.The decrease in brightness after the CME is possibly an indication that the comet will not survive. Another possibility is that the CME swept away Elenin’s coma – the bright cloud of particles around the comet – and that the coma is to be created again.
The predicted orbit places Elenin closest to the Earth on October 16th. Elenin is then approaching the planet at about 34 million kilometers.
Another Australian amateur astronomer, Michael Mattiazzo, took pictures of the comet and noted that the nucleus appears to more and more elongate in shape. This is usually an indication that the comet splits or falls apart.
The doomsayers predicted seismic activity on August 17 which never came about. Now there is a significant chance that the comet will never reach the Sun.
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